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Published prediction scorecard · New York · Mega Millions · draw 20260911
Prediction 18 · 34 · 42 · 48 · 63 + Mega Ball 24 · result 3 · 30 · 33 · 53 · 62 + Mega Ball 22
This comparison uses the immutable snapshot created before this exact draw. The prediction is never rewritten after the result.
Pre-draw prediction
183442486324
2026-09-11 · Friday · 11:00 PM · unordered-bayesian-recency-v1
Exact model miss
Verified result
33033536222
0 of 5 main numbers matched · Mega Ball missed · draw 20260911 · open result source ↗
Complete line rank
Not in locked field
The full official line was not present in this snapshot ranking.
Simulated prize-tier check: No qualifying tier. This is a model comparison, not a purchased ticket or verified payout.
Complete-line chance: 1 in 290472336. No complete-line rank was recorded for this result; it does not change the lottery odds or guarantee an edge.
Locked evidence
What the model knew before the draw
133 verified earlier draws · 67 earlier Friday · 11:00 PM draws · input through 2026-09-04 · Friday · 11:00 PM · draw 20260904.
Headline method: 55% same-draw smoothed number frequency + 30% all-draw frequency + 15% recency; unique combinations only
Complete comparison
Top 10 before this result
| Rank | Complete line | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 18 · 34 · 42 · 48 · 63 + Mega Ball 24 | 0.024507 | |
| #2 | 17 · 18 · 34 · 42 · 63 + Mega Ball 24 | 0.02441 | |
| #3 | 17 · 34 · 42 · 48 · 63 + Mega Ball 24 | 0.024393 | |
| #4 | 17 · 18 · 34 · 42 · 48 + Mega Ball 24 | 0.02435 | |
| #5 | 18 · 27 · 34 · 42 · 63 + Mega Ball 24 | 0.024349 | |
| #6 | 27 · 34 · 42 · 48 · 63 + Mega Ball 24 | 0.024333 | |
| #7 | 18 · 27 · 34 · 42 · 48 + Mega Ball 24 | 0.024289 | |
| #8 | 18 · 34 · 42 · 49 · 63 + Mega Ball 24 | 0.024268 | |
| #9 | 18 · 34 · 42 · 59 · 63 + Mega Ball 24 | 0.024258 | |
| #10 | 34 · 42 · 48 · 49 · 63 + Mega Ball 24 | 0.024252 |
Model field
Which model chose what?
Published rows were locked before the draw. Replay rows were calculated afterward from the same locked input and do not count as live predictions.
| Model | Type | Choice | Complete-line rank | Grade | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced draw model 55% same-draw smoothed number frequency + 30% all-draw frequency + 15% recency; unique combinations only | Statistical blend | 18 · 34 · 42 · 48 · 63 + Mega Ball 24 | Not ranked | Miss | Published before draw |
| Same-draw frequency Smoothed whole-draw frequency for this drawing | Frequency | 18 · 21 · 27 · 34 · 42 + Mega Ball 24 | Not ranked | Miss | Published before draw |
| All-draw frequency Smoothed frequency across all earlier draws | Frequency | 17 · 18 · 42 · 49 · 63 + Mega Ball 24 | Not ranked | Miss | Published before draw |
| Recent momentum Weighted appearances in the 12 most recent earlier draws | Momentum | 1 · 34 · 48 · 59 · 61 + Mega Ball 24 | Not ranked | Miss | Published before draw |
| Draw-shape transition research Tests whether the next unordered field preserves a historically recurring shape after earlier fields with sum-family 6; white-ball shape and bonus-ball evidence stay separate | Structural pattern research | 17 · 26 · 34 · 48 · 61 + Mega Ball 1 Research comparison · 5 pre-declared structural features | Not ranked | Pattern miss · 2/5 features | Published before draw |
| Uniform control Deterministic pre-draw uniform comparison | Control baseline | 2 · 12 · 26 · 37 · 53 + Mega Ball 13 | Not ranked | Miss | Published before draw |