Published prediction scorecard · New York · Mega Millions · draw 20260818
Prediction 17 · 30 · 49 · 56 · 59 + Mega Ball 12 · result 5 · 19 · 30 · 38 · 59 + Mega Ball 12
This comparison uses the immutable snapshot created before this exact draw. The prediction is never rewritten after the result.
Pre-draw prediction
173049565912
2026-08-18 · Tuesday · 11:00 PM · unordered-bayesian-recency-v1
Exact model miss
Verified result
51930385912
2 of 5 main numbers matched · Mega Ball matched · draw 20260818 · open result source ↗
Complete line rank
Not in locked field
The full official line was not present in this snapshot ranking.
Complete-line chance: 1 in 290472336. No complete-line rank was recorded for this result; it does not change the lottery odds or guarantee an edge.
Locked evidence
What the model knew before the draw
126 verified earlier draws · 63 earlier Tuesday · 11:00 PM draws · input through 2026-08-11 · Tuesday · 11:00 PM · draw 20260811.
Headline method: 55% same-draw smoothed number frequency + 30% all-draw frequency + 15% recency; unique combinations only
Complete comparison
Top 10 before this result
| Rank | Complete line | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 17 · 30 · 49 · 56 · 59 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.021889 | |
| #2 | 10 · 17 · 49 · 56 · 59 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.021853 | |
| #3 | 10 · 30 · 49 · 56 · 59 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.021832 | |
| #4 | 17 · 43 · 49 · 56 · 59 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.021779 | |
| #5 | 10 · 17 · 30 · 56 · 59 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.021771 | |
| #6 | 30 · 43 · 49 · 56 · 59 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.021758 | |
| #7 | 10 · 17 · 30 · 49 · 59 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.021722 | |
| #8 | 10 · 43 · 49 · 56 · 59 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.021722 | |
| #9 | 17 · 30 · 43 · 56 · 59 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.021697 | |
| #10 | 10 · 17 · 43 · 56 · 59 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.021661 |
Model field
Which model chose what?
Published rows were locked before the draw. Replay rows were calculated afterward from the same locked input and do not count as live predictions.
| Model | Type | Choice | Complete-line rank | Grade | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced draw model 55% same-draw smoothed number frequency + 30% all-draw frequency + 15% recency; unique combinations only | Statistical blend | 17 · 30 · 49 · 56 · 59 + Mega Ball 12 | Not ranked | Miss | Published before draw |
| Same-draw frequency Smoothed whole-draw frequency for this drawing | Frequency | 10 · 17 · 24 · 56 · 59 + Mega Ball 12 | Not ranked | Miss | Published before draw |
| All-draw frequency Smoothed frequency across all earlier draws | Frequency | 18 · 42 · 49 · 56 · 63 + Mega Ball 12 | Not ranked | Miss | Published before draw |
| Recent momentum Weighted appearances in the 12 most recent earlier draws | Momentum | 2 · 20 · 48 · 51 · 68 + Mega Ball 12 | Not ranked | Miss | Published before draw |
| Draw-shape transition research Tests whether the next unordered field preserves a historically recurring shape after earlier fields with sum-family 3; white-ball shape and bonus-ball evidence stay separate | Structural pattern research | 1 · 17 · 20 · 51 · 68 + Mega Ball 7 Research comparison · 5 pre-declared structural features | Not ranked | Pattern miss · 4/5 features | Published before draw |
| Uniform control Deterministic pre-draw uniform comparison | Control baseline | 1 · 28 · 32 · 48 · 57 + Mega Ball 2 | Not ranked | Miss | Published before draw |