Published prediction scorecard · New York · Mega Millions · draw 20260811
Prediction 10 · 43 · 49 · 56 · 59 + Mega Ball 12 · result 1 · 20 · 30 · 46 · 68 + Mega Ball 17
This comparison uses the immutable snapshot created before this exact draw. The prediction is never rewritten after the result.
Pre-draw prediction
104349565912
2026-08-11 · Tuesday · 11:00 PM · unordered-bayesian-recency-v1
Exact model miss
Verified result
12030466817
0 of 5 main numbers matched · Mega Ball missed · draw 20260811 · open result source ↗
Complete line rank
Not in locked field
The full official line was not present in this snapshot ranking.
Complete-line chance: 1 in 290472336. No complete-line rank was recorded for this result; it does not change the lottery odds or guarantee an edge.
Locked evidence
What the model knew before the draw
124 verified earlier draws · 62 earlier Tuesday · 11:00 PM draws · input through 2026-08-04 · Tuesday · 11:00 PM · draw 20260804.
Headline method: 55% same-draw smoothed number frequency + 30% all-draw frequency + 15% recency; unique combinations only
Complete comparison
Top 10 before this result
| Rank | Complete line | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 10 · 43 · 49 · 56 · 59 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.022889 | |
| #2 | 4 · 10 · 49 · 56 · 59 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.02273 | |
| #3 | 2 · 10 · 49 · 56 · 59 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.022694 | |
| #4 | 4 · 43 · 49 · 56 · 59 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.022651 | |
| #5 | 2 · 43 · 49 · 56 · 59 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.022615 | |
| #6 | 10 · 34 · 49 · 56 · 59 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.022614 | |
| #7 | 10 · 48 · 49 · 56 · 59 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.022542 | |
| #8 | 34 · 43 · 49 · 56 · 59 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.022535 | |
| #9 | 4 · 10 · 43 · 56 · 59 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.022534 | |
| #10 | 2 · 10 · 43 · 56 · 59 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.022499 |
Model field
Which model chose what?
Published rows were locked before the draw. Replay rows were calculated afterward from the same locked input and do not count as live predictions.
| Model | Type | Choice | Complete-line rank | Grade | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced draw model 55% same-draw smoothed number frequency + 30% all-draw frequency + 15% recency; unique combinations only | Statistical blend | 10 · 43 · 49 · 56 · 59 + Mega Ball 12 | Not ranked | Miss | Published before draw |
| Same-draw frequency Smoothed whole-draw frequency for this drawing | Frequency | 10 · 17 · 24 · 56 · 59 + Mega Ball 12 | Not ranked | Miss | Published before draw |
| All-draw frequency Smoothed frequency across all earlier draws | Frequency | 18 · 42 · 49 · 56 · 63 + Mega Ball 12 | Not ranked | Miss | Published before draw |
| Recent momentum Weighted appearances in the 12 most recent earlier draws | Momentum | 2 · 48 · 51 · 55 · 59 + Mega Ball 12 | Not ranked | Miss | Published before draw |
| Draw-shape transition research Tests whether the next unordered field preserves a historically recurring shape after earlier fields with sum-family 8; white-ball shape and bonus-ball evidence stay separate | Structural pattern research | 21 · 26 · 34 · 43 · 51 + Mega Ball 23 Research comparison · 5 pre-declared structural features | Not ranked | Pattern miss · 2/5 features | Published before draw |
| Uniform control Deterministic pre-draw uniform comparison | Control baseline | 18 · 38 · 39 · 49 · 51 + Mega Ball 6 | Not ranked | Miss | Published before draw |