Published prediction scorecard · New York · Mega Millions · draw 20260807
Prediction 2 · 18 · 42 · 48 · 49 + Mega Ball 12 · result 17 · 20 · 32 · 54 · 57 + Mega Ball 23
This comparison uses the immutable snapshot created before this exact draw. The prediction is never rewritten after the result.
Pre-draw prediction
21842484912
2026-08-07 · Friday · 11:00 PM · unordered-bayesian-recency-v1
Exact model miss
Verified result
172032545723
0 of 5 main numbers matched · Mega Ball missed · draw 20260807 · open result source ↗
Complete line rank
Not in locked field
The full official line was not present in this snapshot ranking.
Complete-line chance: 1 in 290472336. No complete-line rank was recorded for this result; it does not change the lottery odds or guarantee an edge.
Locked evidence
What the model knew before the draw
123 verified earlier draws · 62 earlier Friday · 11:00 PM draws · input through 2026-07-31 · Friday · 11:00 PM · draw 20260731.
Headline method: 55% same-draw smoothed number frequency + 30% all-draw frequency + 15% recency; unique combinations only
Complete comparison
Top 10 before this result
| Rank | Complete line | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 2 · 18 · 42 · 48 · 49 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.026267 | |
| #2 | 2 · 18 · 34 · 42 · 49 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.026209 | |
| #3 | 2 · 18 · 34 · 42 · 48 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.025859 | |
| #4 | 2 · 18 · 42 · 49 · 63 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.025826 | |
| #5 | 18 · 34 · 42 · 48 · 49 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.025767 | |
| #6 | 2 · 18 · 42 · 49 · 56 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.025704 | |
| #7 | 2 · 34 · 42 · 48 · 49 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.025592 | |
| #8 | 2 · 18 · 42 · 43 · 49 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.025551 | |
| #9 | 2 · 18 · 21 · 42 · 49 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.025549 | |
| #10 | 2 · 18 · 42 · 48 · 63 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.025476 |
Model field
Which model chose what?
Published rows were locked before the draw. Replay rows were calculated afterward from the same locked input and do not count as live predictions.
| Model | Type | Choice | Complete-line rank | Grade | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced draw model 55% same-draw smoothed number frequency + 30% all-draw frequency + 15% recency; unique combinations only | Statistical blend | 2 · 18 · 42 · 48 · 49 + Mega Ball 12 | Not ranked | Miss | Published before draw |
| Same-draw frequency Smoothed whole-draw frequency for this drawing | Frequency | 13 · 18 · 21 · 42 · 49 + Mega Ball 4 | Not ranked | Miss | Published before draw |
| All-draw frequency Smoothed frequency across all earlier draws | Frequency | 18 · 42 · 49 · 56 · 63 + Mega Ball 12 | Not ranked | Miss | Published before draw |
| Recent momentum Weighted appearances in the 12 most recent earlier draws | Momentum | 2 · 4 · 48 · 59 · 70 + Mega Ball 12 | Not ranked | Miss | Published before draw |
| Draw-shape transition research Tests whether the next unordered field preserves a historically recurring shape after earlier fields with sum-family 7; white-ball shape and bonus-ball evidence stay separate | Structural pattern research | 2 · 5 · 26 · 44 · 48 + Mega Ball 1 Research comparison · 5 pre-declared structural features | Not ranked | Pattern miss · 3/5 features | Published before draw |
| Uniform control Deterministic pre-draw uniform comparison | Control baseline | 4 · 21 · 23 · 40 · 54 + Mega Ball 5 | Not ranked | Miss | Published before draw |