Published prediction scorecard · New York · Mega Millions · draw 20260724
Prediction 2 · 42 · 48 · 56 · 63 + Mega Ball 12 · result 2 · 5 · 42 · 44 · 60 + Mega Ball 1
This comparison uses the immutable snapshot created before this exact draw. The prediction is never rewritten after the result.
Pre-draw prediction
24248566312
2026-07-24 · Friday · 11:00 PM · unordered-bayesian-recency-v1
Exact model miss
Verified result
254244601
2 of 5 main numbers matched · Mega Ball missed · draw 20260724 · open result source ↗
Complete line rank
Not in locked field
The full official line was not present in this snapshot ranking.
Complete-line chance: 1 in 290472336. No complete-line rank was recorded for this result; it does not change the lottery odds or guarantee an edge.
Locked evidence
What the model knew before the draw
120 verified earlier draws · 60 earlier Friday · 11:00 PM draws · input through 2026-07-21 · Tuesday · 11:00 PM · draw 20260721.
Headline method: 55% same-draw smoothed number frequency + 30% all-draw frequency + 15% recency; unique combinations only
Complete comparison
Top 10 before this result
| Rank | Complete line | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 2 · 42 · 48 · 56 · 63 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.023839 | |
| #2 | 2 · 42 · 49 · 56 · 63 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.023638 | |
| #3 | 2 · 48 · 49 · 56 · 63 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.023631 | |
| #4 | 2 · 42 · 48 · 49 · 63 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.023581 | |
| #5 | 2 · 21 · 42 · 56 · 63 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.023565 | |
| #6 | 2 · 21 · 48 · 56 · 63 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.023558 | |
| #7 | 2 · 18 · 42 · 56 · 63 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.023548 | |
| #8 | 2 · 18 · 48 · 56 · 63 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.023541 | |
| #9 | 2 · 21 · 42 · 48 · 63 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.023508 | |
| #10 | 2 · 13 · 42 · 56 · 63 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.023504 |
Model field
Which model chose what?
Published rows were locked before the draw. Replay rows were calculated afterward from the same locked input and do not count as live predictions.
| Model | Type | Choice | Complete-line rank | Grade | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced draw model 55% same-draw smoothed number frequency + 30% all-draw frequency + 15% recency; unique combinations only | Statistical blend | 2 · 42 · 48 · 56 · 63 + Mega Ball 12 | Not ranked | Miss | Published before draw |
| Same-draw frequency Smoothed whole-draw frequency for this drawing | Frequency | 13 · 18 · 21 · 42 · 49 + Mega Ball 16 | Not ranked | Miss | Published before draw |
| All-draw frequency Smoothed frequency across all earlier draws | Frequency | 18 · 42 · 49 · 56 · 63 + Mega Ball 12 | Not ranked | Miss | Published before draw |
| Recent momentum Weighted appearances in the 12 most recent earlier draws | Momentum | 2 · 5 · 48 · 56 · 70 + Mega Ball 12 | Not ranked | Miss | Published before draw |
| Uniform control Deterministic pre-draw uniform comparison | Control baseline | 9 · 19 · 31 · 46 · 61 + Mega Ball 1 | Not ranked | Miss | Published before draw |
| Draw-shape transition research Tests a pre-declared structural shape after earlier results with sum-family 7; exact-number scoring remains independent | Structural pattern research | 13 · 18 · 21 · 42 · 49 + Mega Ball 16 Research comparison · 5 pre-declared structural features | Not ranked | Pattern miss · 1/5 features | Historical replay |