Analytics · New York · Mega Millions · draw 20260721
Why 25 ranked #53
This draw audit preserves the model input cutoff, predicted number, complete ranking, and verified result.
Official result
Tuesday · 11:00 PM
252026-07-21 · draw 20260721
Model prediction
18
Miss · unordered-frequency-v1
Winner's model rank
#53 of 70
Model score 0.010526 · observed 6 times in training.
Official chance: 1 in 70. Every Play Whe number has the same official draw chance. Rank #53 is DrawPick's historical-frequency order, not a different probability or guaranteed edge.
Pre-result input boundary
What the model knew
Training sample: 119 earlier draws · input stopped at 2026-07-17 · Friday · 11:00 PM · draw 20260717. The winning draw was excluded from its own ranking.
Evaluation mode: historical walk-forward replay. This recreates what the algorithm would have ranked using only earlier stored draws; it is not represented as a pick that was publicly posted before the draw.
Complete comparison
Top 10 before this result
| Rank | Number | Model score | Training appearances | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 49 | 0.02406 | 15 | |
| #2 | 18 | 0.022556 | 14 | |
| #3 | 42 | 0.022556 | 14 | |
| #4 | 56 | 0.022556 | 14 | |
| #5 | 63 | 0.022556 | 14 | |
| #6 | 11 | 0.021053 | 13 | |
| #7 | 40 | 0.021053 | 13 | |
| #8 | 17 | 0.019549 | 12 | |
| #9 | 21 | 0.019549 | 12 | |
| #10 | 24 | 0.019549 | 12 |
Winning number 25 ranked #53 with score 0.010526 and 6 training appearances.