Pre-draw analytics · Connecticut · Mega Millions
Why 10 · 17 · 30 · 59 · 63 + Mega Ball 12 for Tuesday · 11:00 PM
This is a target-specific prediction snapshot for 2026-09-08. It is locked before the result and does not get copied across other draw times.
Complete prediction line
101730596312
2026-09-08 · Tuesday · 11:00 PM · bonus ball shown separately
Same-draw evidence
66 Tuesday · 11:00 PM draws
132 verified Mega Millions draws total.
Input cutoff
unordered-bayesian-recency-v1
Through 2026-09-01 · Tuesday · 11:00 PM · draw 20260901.
Headline model method: 55% same-draw smoothed number frequency + 30% all-draw frequency + 15% recency; unique combinations only Every model below uses the same locked cutoff but a different documented method. A complete valid line remains 1 in 290472336.
Independent model field
Every model gets its own answer
All rows use the same locked pre-draw cutoff. The uniform control is a benchmark; game-specific cultural strategies are labeled separately from statistical models.
| Model | Type | Choice | How it works |
|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced draw model | Statistical blend | 10 · 17 · 30 · 59 · 63 + Mega Ball 12 | 55% same-draw smoothed number frequency + 30% all-draw frequency + 15% recency; unique combinations only |
| Same-draw frequency | Frequency | 10 · 17 · 30 · 56 · 59 + Mega Ball 12 | Smoothed whole-draw frequency for this drawing |
| All-draw frequency | Frequency | 17 · 18 · 42 · 49 · 63 + Mega Ball 12 | Smoothed frequency across all earlier draws |
| Recent momentum | Momentum | 1 · 17 · 48 · 51 · 55 + Mega Ball 17 | Weighted appearances in the 12 most recent earlier draws |
| Draw-shape transition research | Structural pattern research | 20 · 34 · 46 · 48 · 51 + Mega Ball 7 | Tests whether the next unordered field preserves a historically recurring shape after earlier fields with sum-family 9; white-ball shape and bonus-ball evidence stay separate |
| Uniform control | Control baseline | 2 · 32 · 39 · 52 · 53 + Mega Ball 14 | Deterministic pre-draw uniform comparison |
Top 10 for Tuesday · 11:00 PM
| Rank | Complete line | Score |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | 10 · 17 · 30 · 59 · 63 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.022937 |
| #2 | 1 · 10 · 17 · 30 · 59 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.02279 |
| #3 | 10 · 17 · 30 · 48 · 59 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.022728 |
| #4 | 1 · 10 · 30 · 59 · 63 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.022611 |
| #5 | 1 · 10 · 17 · 59 · 63 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.022549 |
| #6 | 10 · 30 · 48 · 59 · 63 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.022549 |
| #7 | 1 · 10 · 17 · 30 · 63 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.022535 |
| #8 | 10 · 17 · 48 · 59 · 63 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.022486 |
| #9 | 10 · 17 · 30 · 48 · 63 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.022472 |
| #10 | 10 · 17 · 30 · 51 · 59 + Mega Ball 12 | 0.022433 |